The Science of New Year's Resolutions (And Why 91% Fail)

It's the time of year when the wellness industry really wants you to believe a calendar flip will transform you into a different person. Spoiler: it won't.

In this fan-favorite episode, we dig into the surprisingly ancient history of New Year's resolutions—from Babylonian harvest festivals to Roman offerings to the two-faced god Janus—and trace how these rituals evolved from religious vows into the modern obsession with self-optimization.

But this isn't just a history lesson. We get into the neuroscience of habit formation: how your prefrontal cortex gets fatigued, why willpower is basically a scam, and what the research actually says about how long it takes to build a new habit. (Hint: it's not 21 days—studies show it takes anywhere from 18 to 254 days.)

We also break down why 91% of resolutions fail by mid-January—Strava literally identified January 19th as "Quitters Day"—and what cognitive biases like the optimism trap and all-or-nothing thinking have to do with it.

Kylee shares her framework for setting goals that actually stick, including how to make them specific, measurable, and—critically—relevant to what you actually care about (not just what diet culture told you to want).

Plus: Woody Guthrie's 1942 list of 33 "New Year's Rulings," including gems like "wash teeth, if any" and "beat fascism."

Whether you've already abandoned your resolution or you're trying to set one that might actually work, this episode will help you understand why your brain fights change—and how to work with it instead of against it.

Full Episode Transcript

The History and Science of New Year's Resolutions [00:00:00]

It's the time of year where a lot of people are making New Year's resolutions. In the dietetics world, January is the busiest time of the year—it's like Christmas for dietitians. November and December slow down because everyone's doing their holiday stuff and they think a dietitian is going to say no pie, no Christmas cookies. Then January 1st rolls around and the applications come flooding in.

People get this idea that there's one magic fix that can change your life. A lot of people make goals that aren't specific, that are unrealistic, and then they feel more depressed after they can't achieve something that was a grandiose idea from the start. So many resolutions feel more like vibes than actual goals—"get healthier," "lose weight," "save more money." How do you even measure "healthier"?

The 4,000-Year History of New Year's Resolutions [00:06:20]

Ancient Babylon (2000 BCE)

The earliest recorded instance of New Year's resolutions comes from the Babylonians. They had a 12-day festival called Akitu where they celebrated the New Year in spring. During this time, they would make promises to their gods to pay debts and return borrowed items. These commitments were seen as a way of ensuring divine favor for the year ahead.

Ancient Rome (46 BCE)

Roman Emperor Julius Caesar introduced the Julian calendar, which is why we now celebrate New Year's on January 1st. January was named after the Roman god Janus, the two-faced god of beginnings, transitions, and endings. Romans would celebrate by making offerings to Janus and promising to be better citizens in the coming year.

The Rise of Christianity (4th Century CE)

When Christianity rose to prominence, early Christians took the New Year celebration and made it less about partying with wine and more about reflection and prayer. Instead of focusing on promises to deities, resolutions started to center on self-improvement and avoiding sin.

The Enlightenment and Modern Era

By the 18th and 19th centuries, personal self-improvement gained steam. Resolutions shifted away from religious vows to personal goals like improving health, education, or finances. Common resolutions now include weight loss, career advancement, better relationships, and financial success.

New Year's Resolution Statistics: Who Makes Them and How Many Fail [00:11:49]

According to market research on resolutions made in 2024:

• 3 out of 10 Americans made a New Year's resolution
• Younger adults (ages 18-29) made up the largest portion—around 49% of resolution-makers
• 79% of goals were related to health and fitness
• 57% were for stronger social connection

But here's the sobering part about resolution success rates:

• Only 9% of people successfully keep their New Year's resolutions
• 23% drop out by the end of the first week of January
• 43% drop out by the end of January

What Is Quitters Day? [00:15:07]

In 2019, Strava conducted a study that identified a specific pattern: for the first two weeks of January, people were active—running, walking, rollerblading. Then on January 19th, activity levels tanked. They started calling it "Quitters Day" because it came through so loud and clear in the data.

You can see the same phenomenon at gyms. The first week of January, gyms are packed. Then there's a big drop-off after that first week. Pro tip: wait until February to join the gym when they have clearance sales on memberships.

Common New Year's Resolutions for Endurance Athletes [00:17:53]

In the endurance sports world, common resolutions include:

• Fad diets: Keto, paleo, low-carb high-fat (LCHF), Whole30
• Cutting out food groups: Eliminating processed foods, cutting out sugar
• Unrealistic weight loss goals: "Lose 20 pounds in four weeks" while training for a race
• Dry January: A month of alcohol abstinence

Does Dry January Actually Work?

Research on the efficacy of Dry January is actually mixed. Several experts worry that after a period of abstinence, people are more prone to overcompensating by drinking excessively in February, especially if they view Dry January as a way to "earn" indulgence later.

The real issue is all-or-nothing thinking. When people approach alcohol reduction with a restrictive mindset and go cold turkey, they often end up having binge sessions instead of developing a sustainable relationship with alcohol.

The Neuroscience of Habit Formation [00:22:02]

Understanding why habit formation is so difficult requires understanding the brain structures involved:

Key Brain Structures

Prefrontal Cortex (PFC): Responsible for decision-making, planning, and impulse control. This is the rational part of the brain that helps you evaluate long-term goals over short-term impulses.

Basal Ganglia: Critical for habit formation and automating behaviors. Once a behavior becomes a habit, it requires less active decision-making and shifts to the basal ganglia.

Amygdala: Processes emotions and triggers the fear or stress response. Emotional experiences can either support or hinder behavior change.

Dopaminergic Reward System: Includes the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and nucleus accumbens. Critical for reinforcing new behaviors through rewards and pleasure signals.

Key Neurotransmitters

Dopamine: Drives motivation and reinforcement of positive behavior. A spike in dopamine helps encode a behavior as rewarding, increasing the likelihood of repetition.

Serotonin: Linked to mood regulation and emotional stability—crucial for sustaining motivation during behavior change.

Cortisol: The stress hormone. Chronic stress inhibits the prefrontal cortex, making it harder to make deliberate decisions and stick to behavior changes.

Time and time again, research shows that positive rewards and positive motivation is much more powerful than punishment or negative motivation. The more you can engage dopamine, the more likely you are to actually have behavior change.

Myth-Busting: The 21-Day Habit Myth [00:27:03]

The idea that it takes exactly 21 days to form a habit was popularized by Dr. Maxwell Maltz in his 1960 book "Psycho-Cybernetics." This has been repeated widely in pop psychology and self-help literature—but it's wrong.

A 2009 study by Lally et al. found that habit formation actually takes an average of 66 days. But more importantly, the study identified that it varies significantly: from 18 to 254 days, depending on the complexity of the habit and individual differences.

That's somewhere between two weeks and almost a year. Simplistic timelines like "21 days" don't account for how humans actually work.

Why Willpower Doesn't Work [00:30:03]

Many people—especially athletes—believe willpower is the key to habit formation. The "Goggins mentality" of being hard on yourself is prominent in the athletic population.

But here's the science: the prefrontal cortex, responsible for self-control and decision-making, has limited capacity and can become fatigued, especially under stress or when handling multiple goals.

The Resolution Trap

When you set overly ambitious or numerous resolutions, you overwhelm your PFC, leading to decision fatigue and decreased self-regulation. If you're thinking "I need to save money, lose weight, start running, start meal planning, cut out sugar, run ten miles a day"—you're setting yourself up for failure. Your brain literally cannot handle all of that at once.

Why Athletes Aren't Immune

Just because you can run 100 miles doesn't mean you're better at New Year's resolutions. We overestimate that athletic willpower translates to other areas of life.

More Habit Formation Myths Debunked [00:35:27]

Myth: You Need to Break a Habit Before Building a New One

Neuroscience shows that habits are deeply ingrained neural pathways that aren't actually erased. New habits can overwrite or compete with old ones through neuroplasticity. Focusing on forming positive habits is more effective than trying to break old ones directly.

Myth: Punishment Is an Effective Way to Break Habits

Studies in behavioral psychology show that positive reinforcement is far more effective than punishment. Punishment leads to stress, which overloads the PFC, and creates avoidance rather than behavior change.

You can't asshole yourself into making sustainable, lasting change. That's just not how our brains work. Be kind to yourself. It's actually more effective.

Myth: Small Changes Don't Matter

The concept of small wins—as described in books like "Atomic Habits"—is supported by research. Smaller incremental changes that compound over time are more sustainable and effective than drastic shifts.

Myth: Habits Are All About Repetition

Repetition alone isn't enough. Emotional reinforcement and context cues play an even bigger role. This is why picking an exercise you actually enjoy matters more than picking the "best" exercise. The best exercise for weight loss is the one you like doing—because you'll actually do it.

SMART Goals: How to Set Resolutions That Actually Work [00:45:02]

SMART goals stands for:

• S - Specific
• M - Measurable
• A - Attainable
• R - Relevant
• T - Time-bound

Specific

"Lose weight," "eat healthier," and "clean up my diet" don't work because they're not specific. Think from an additive perspective: what can you include or add to your routine, rather than what you need to eliminate?

Measurable

For athletes with eating disorder histories, use biofeedback markers instead of hard numbers: energy levels, sleep quality, stress levels, performance.

Attainable

A helpful check: on a scale of 1-10, how attainable do you think this goal is? If it's an 8-10, move forward. If it's a 5, adjust the goal until it reaches 8-10.

Relevant

Goals should be things that are actually important to you—not what society or diet culture tells you to want. When someone says "I want to lose weight," the question is: Is this what you actually want, or have you been infected by diet culture?

Time-Bound

Goals need a specific deadline or timeframe. Even three months isn't that long in the grand scheme of behavior change. Many nutrition professionals require six months or 12 months because meaningful change takes time.

Working with Athletes on Goal-Setting [00:58:06]

Effective goal-setting requires understanding the individual. Key questions to ask:

• What are your top three goals?
• What are your top three challenges preventing you from reaching those goals?
• What's your body image story?
• What mentors or approaches have you liked or not liked in the past?

The athlete should be involved in the goal-setting process. A 30-day challenge or diet book that says "here's what you do" doesn't take into account your individual systems, challenges, and life circumstances.

Set 1-2 goals at a time, not 3 or more. Research shows the success rate drops significantly when you try to work on three or more goals simultaneously.

It's also okay to not achieve a goal you set. That's data. Go back and adjust. Failure is just information about how to better calibrate the goal.

Tips for Sustaining New Habits [01:03:02]

1. Positive Self-Talk and Affirmations

Repeating a goal out loud can create positive changes in neurochemistry. Journaling things you're doing well—reinforcing the positive—helps work toward specific goals.

2. Habit Stacking (Nutrition Skill Stacking)

Pair a new habit with something already ingrained in your routine. This builds on existing neural pathways.

Example: Hydration
What habits do you already have throughout the day that you could pair with drinking 12-16oz of water? Options include mealtimes, snacks, pre/post workout, or right when you wake up.

3. Habit Swapping

Instead of just eliminating a habit, replace it with an alternative. If you want to reduce alcohol consumption, don't just say "I'm cutting out alcohol." Take the habit of having that drink and substitute an alternative—sparkling water, mocktail, or another beverage ritual.

Woody Guthrie's 33 New Year's Rulings (1942) [01:08:25]

Folk singer Woody Guthrie's journal contained a list of 33 "New Year's Rulings" that offer a different perspective on resolutions—simpler, more human, and focused on connection rather than optimization:

• Wash teeth, if any
• Take baths
• Eat good. Fruit. Vegetables. Milk.
• Write a song a day
• Wear clean clothes, shine shoes, change socks
• Read lots good books
• Listen to radio, learn people better
• Keep the rancho clean
• Don't get lonesome
• Stay glad
• Keep hoping machine running
• Dream good
• Bank extra money
• Have company, but don't waste time
• Play and sing good
• Dance better
• Help win war / beat fascism
• Love Mama. Love Papa. Love Pete. Love everybody.
• Make up your mind
• Wake up and fight

"Dance better" isn't a SMART goal—it's impossible to quantify. But there's something beautiful about how much space it opens up for fun, connection, freedom, and just dancing. Sometimes the best goals aren't about optimization at all.

Notice "Stay Hard" is not on there. That's not part of the Woody Guthrie paradigm.

What We Cover in This Episode

• The 4,000-year history of New Year's resolutions (Babylon, Rome, Christianity)

• Why 91% of resolutions fail and 43% of people quit by end of January

• The neuroscience of habit formation: prefrontal cortex, basal ganglia, dopamine, and cortisol

• Why the "21 days to form a habit" myth is wrong

• Why willpower doesn't work (and what does)

• SMART goals: How to set resolutions that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound

• Habit stacking and other evidence-based strategies for behavior change